Election Day is here. As Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump end their campaigns, both have their sights set on a handful of states many believe will decide the outcome of this year’s race. One of those states happens to be Michigan.
It turns out that it’s not only the candidates interested in the race. Our research found Michigan voters are significantly interested in the campaigns, too. Polling numbers in seven swing states are extremely close, even as millions have already voted via mail ballot or early in-person locations.
BetMichigan.com took a break from reviewing Michigan casino apps to come up with some numbers. We looked at whether Michigan is likely to lean "blue" or "red" (in other words, Democrat or Republican) in the 2024 election.
BetMichigan.com averaged results of three current polls for the 2024 Presidential Election, as of this week. We developed the following odds of how Michigan will vote in 2024. The polls were conducted by Franklin & Marshall, Bloomberg / Morning Consult and Susquehanna Polling.
Party | Odds | Percent Chance |
Kamala Harris (Democrat) | +107 | 48.4% |
Donald Trump (Republican) | +112 | 47.2% |
Wagering on elections is not permitted in the United States, so you cannot find odds on the race at any licensed Michigan sports betting app. The closest legal alternative for Americans is PredictIt, an online political futures exchange. As of the morning of Nov. 5, shares on Trump winning back the presidency were trading at 57 cents, with shares on Vice President Harris were at 50. With shares of the winning candidate paying out at $1 each, Trump's odds translate to roughly -133. Harris had the equivalent of +100 odds.
Election Year | Democrat Candidate | Republican Candidate |
2020 | Joe Biden (50.6%) | Donald Trump (47.8%) |
2016 | Hillary Clinton (47.0%) | Donald Trump (47.3%) |
2012 | Barack Obama (54.2%) | Mitt Romney (44.7%) |
2008 | Barack Obama (57.4%) | John McCain (41.0%) |
2004 | John Kerry (51.2%) | George W. Bush (47.8%) |
Michigan has a solid history of backing the winning candidate in recent presidential elections. Since 1980, the candidate carrying the Mitten State has gone on to win the White House in nine of 11 elections. The two exceptions were 2000 and 2004, when voters went for Democrats Al Gore and John Kerry, respectively.
Democrats have tended to perform well in the state, as Michigan has gone blue in seven of the past eight elections. The lone exception was 2016, when Trump edged Hillary Clinton 47.3% to 47.0%. Four years ago, Trump lost to current President Joe Biden 50.6% to 47.8% in the state where Michigan online casinos are legal and regulated.
Whoever wins Michigan this year will earn 15 electoral college votes. That’s one fewer than the state awarded in 2020. Despite the drop, Michigan is likely to be a state that will help decide the outcome of the 2024 election. According to data in late October, Harris led Trump 51.7% to 46.6%, according to Susquehanna University research. Bloomberg/Morning Consult had Harris with a narrower lead, 49.6% to 46.5%.
Here are the trends, expressed in percentages:
Author
Steve is an accomplished, award-winning reporter with more than 20 years of experience covering gaming, sports, politics and business. He has written for the Associated Press, Reuters, The Louisville Courier Journal, The Center Square and numerous other publications. Based in Louisville, Ky., Steve has covered the expansion of sports betting in the U.S. and other gaming matters.
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